North Korea is the most secretive nation on Earth, but it could not hide the underground tests and ICBM launches that confirmed it had a nuclear weapons program. Since North Korea’s first nuclear test in 2006, the Hermit Kingdom has steadily advanced warhead technology and missile delivery systems. Today, it stands as a de facto nuclear power, armed with dozens of warheads and ICBMs that can strike American cities within minutes.

For North Korea, its nuclear program is about more than just power or pride. The ruling Kim dynasty sees nuclear arms as the ultimate insurance against hostile regime change – a view distinctly at odds with most of the international community, which views North Korea’s nuclear arsenal as a serious threat wielded by an unstable communist regime.

How the Program Began

North Korea’s nuclear ambitions began early in the Cold War. With assistance from the Soviet Union in the 1950s, Pyongyang built research reactors and developed nuclear expertise for generating electricity. But unmistakable signs of a weapons program began to emerge in the early 1980s.

The 1994 Agreed Framework between the United States and North Korea was the first attempt to halt the program. In exchange for economic assistance and light-water reactors, Pyongyang promised to freeze and eventually dismantle its weapons facilities. For a time, it seemed to work. But the agreement collapsed in the early 2000s amid general mistrust and accusations of cheating.

What followed was a cycle of provocation and renegotiation. Each time North Korea agreed to talks, it extracted concessions. And each time talks failed, it pressed ahead with more weapons development.

The Current Arsenal

Exact numbers remain uncertain, but many analysts believe North Korea has accumulated about 40–60 nuclear warheads. It also has enough enriched uranium and separated plutonium for dozens more. Satellite imagery and intelligence reports suggest a diverse and growing capability that includes:

• Nuclear Warheads: Believed to be capable of delivery by missiles.
• Short- and Medium-Range Missiles: Capable of striking South Korea and Japan with ease.
• Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs): Recent tests indicate the ability to strike the continental United States.
• Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Kim Jong Un speaks of nuclear weapons for battlefield use, suggesting warheads intended for artillery shells or short-range missiles. 

Professor Vipin Narang is an authority on North Korean missiles with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He believes North Korea’s new Hwasong-15 and Hwasong-18 ICBMs are large enough to carry thermonuclear warheads that could strike anywhere in America.

Professor Narang also thinks warhead miniaturization has been achieved, providing sufficient room in the nosecone for terminal-stage decoys. Hwasong-15’s test flight in 2017 led experts to conclude its range was nearly 7,000 miles. And the newer Hwasong-18 boasts a 9,000-mile range – longer than America’s Minuteman III or Trident II strategic ballistic missiles.

To complement its ICBMs, North Korea has also developed truck-mounted, short-range missiles that look suspiciously like Russia’s 9K720 Iskander-M quasi-ballistic missile, quasi indicating a flight path that is lower and more direct than usual.

Factor in their 1.5-mile-per-second speed, stealth-skin technology, and 30-G terminal-stage evasive maneuvering capability, and Islanders are extremely hard to shoot down. Their kill percentage in Ukraine against American Patriot missile defense systems is nearly 100%, and they can also deliver megaton-sized thermonuclear warheads in their strategic configuration.

Why North Korea Wants Nukes

For Pyongyang, nuclear weapons are not optional—they are considered essential to regime survival. The fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Muammar Gaddafi in Libya strengthened Kim Jong Un’s conviction that disarmament equals vulnerability. Nuclear weapons, in his view, not only deter foreign intervention but also ensure his personal survival.

There are political motives as well. Domestically, nuclear weapons strengthen Kim’s image as a powerful leader defending his nation against foreign aggression. Internationally, the arsenal provides some grudging respect and would be a valuable bargaining chip if future negotiations are ever held.

Right or wrong, nations also feel a sense of pride at being members of the elite nuclear club. Something less than ideal is said about the human condition when so much effort is spent killing other people when things don’t go our way.

Regional and Global Impacts

North Korea’s nuclear arsenal further destabilizes what is already one of the least stable regions on Earth. South Korea and Japan live under a constant barrage of North Korean threats that force them to rely heavily on US protection – or even consider nuclear arsenals of their own.

China, while officially opposed to North Korea’s nuclear weapons, tolerates them as inexpensive leverage to be used in several ways against America and the West.

For the US, the threat is political and strategic. An operational ICBM with a nuclear warhead allows Pyongyang to target American cities. The calculus of deterrence is radically changed. Would the U.S. really defend Asian allies if doing so risked a nuclear strike on its own soil?

And on a global scale, North Korea seriously undermines the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). As one of four nations outside the NPT—and the only one to ever withdraw—it demonstrates how difficult it is to enforce global norms if a state decides nuclear weapons are essential for its national security.

Failed Diplomacy

From the six-party talks in the 2000s to the high-profile summits between Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump, diplomacy has failed to halt North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Agreements have been signed and photo-ops arranged, but Pyongyang always returns to weapons development in the end.

Sanctions inflicted some economic pain, but not enough to change behavior. North Korea adapted by smuggling, cyber theft, and expanding trade with sympathetic nations willing to risk angering America. Its weapons program remains a top priority, even at the expense of necessities for its own people.

The unfortunate fact is that decades of pressure and negotiation have not produced progress on disarmament. Instead, North Korea has steadily expanded both the size and sophistication of its nuclear arsenal.

The Road Ahead

The question is no longer how to prevent North Korea from becoming a nuclear power. The question is how to deal with North Korea now that it is one.

Some suggest air strikes on North Korea’s nuclear facilities and weapons sites. Others want renewed diplomacy, even suggesting limited agreements such as caps on warhead production or bans on further ICBM tests. Another view holds that deterrence has now become the only realistic option – accepting North Korea as a nuclear weapons state and targeting it like it is one as well.

None of those solutions is ideal, but inaction may be the riskiest choice of all. Leaving the situation to drift without guidance will surely lead to disaster in the end. The old adage, “If something can happen, it eventually will,” is more than an appropriate expression in this case. Mathematical laws of probability demand it.  

No Easy Solutions

The Kim regime believes its survival depends on its nuclear arsenal. That conviction – true or not – makes its weapons unlikely to be traded away at the bargaining table. And if diplomacy fails, it usually strengthens the position of those calling for military action. But those advocates have missed some critical details that make a surprise attack risky in this situation.

South Korea’s capital of Seoul is one of the most densely populated cities on Earth. Its metropolitan area contains 25 million citizens packed into about 412 square miles – more than 60,000 people per square mile.

But hundreds of North Korean long-range artillery pieces in fortified underground bunkers are stationed just north of the Demilitarized Zone within range of Seoul. Perhaps a quarter-million people would die if North Korea were attacked by surprise and used that artillery against Seoul in revenge.

Another factor that complicates military strikes is the mobile nature of North Korea’s truck-mounted nuclear weapons. They often move at night, can hide almost anywhere, then strike within minutes and hide again. 

A Larger Threat

At Our Planet Project Foundation, we recognize North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is an unfortunate fact of our time. But the threat those weapons present must be viewed in the context of the larger threat posed by nuclear weapons in general.

Thermonuclear weapons are uniquely destabilizing by their very existence. But North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is only part of the problem when the nuclear arsenals of other nations must also be considered.

Nuclear weapons threaten our civilization and the planet we live on, no matter who has them. The only way of ending that threat is to eliminate nuclear weapons entirely.